A timing belt is typically made from rubber, although some belts are instead made from polyurethane or neoprene.[8][9] The structure of the belt is reinforced with corded fibres (acting as tension members)[10] and the toothed surface is reinforced with a fabric covering.[11]

Despite the recent drawdown in markets since the Fed meeting on Dec. 18, the setup heading into 2025 "has really not changed," Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

For now, this isn't shaking Chronert's overall confidence in the US equity market. He noted that the "fundamentals" that have driven the market rally remain intact.

The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) once again led the charge in 2024, rising more than 30% thus far while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has risen over 25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is up a more modest 14%.

"I think 4.5% or higher on the 10-year gets problematic for the markets more broadly," Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz said in a recent video sent to clients.

As markets have digested the Federal Reserve's recent message that interest rates may remain higher for longer than investors had hoped, bond yields have been soaring. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is up more than 40 basis points in December alone.

Failure of the timing system will prevent an engine from running. Many modern cars use interference engines, which can suffer catastrophic damage in the event of timing system failure,[26] since the loss of synchronization between the crankshaft and the camshaft will cause the valves to collide with the pistons.

The most common devices to transfer the drive are toothed rubber belts, metal timing chains or a set of gears. The teeth of the belt/chain/gears mesh with both the crankshaft and camshaft(s), thereby synchronising their motion.

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Stock valuations remain high. Earnings are expected to grow about 15% year over year for the S&P 500, per FactSet data, creating a "high bar" to impress investors. US economic growth is largely expected to remain resilient.

Rubber degrades with higher temperatures, and with contact with motor oil. Thus the life expectancy of a timing belt is lowered in hot or leaky engines. Also, the life of the reinforcing cords is also affected by water and antifreeze, so it is important that belt that can be exposed to water is able to drain the water away quickly.

Toothed belts were invented in the early 1940s, for use in textile mills.[17] The first known automobile engine to use a timing belt was the American 1954 Devin-Panhard racing car, used an engine converted from pushrods to overhead camshafts through the use of a toothed belt made by the Gilmer Company.[18][19] This car won the Sports Car Club of America (SCCA) National Championship in 1956.[20]

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Manufacturer-specification timing belts may stretch at high rpm,[citation needed] retarding the cam and therefore the ignition.[12] Stronger aftermarket belts will not stretch and the timing is preserved.[13] When designing the timing belt, a wider belt increases its strength however a narrower belt reduces weight and friction.[14]

Kantrowitz further clarified in an interview with Yahoo Finance's Market Domination that any incoming economic data that sends rates lower could be a welcome sign for stocks.

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But stocks have not been in the holiday spirit. All three major averages sold off Friday, with the Nasdaq falling nearly 1.5%.

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Aside from the belt/chain itself, also common is a failure of the tensioner, and/or the various gear and idler bearings, causing the belt/chain to derail. Furthermore, in engines where the timing belt drives the water pump, failure of the water pump can cause the pump to seize, which can break the timing belt or chain. For this reason, timing belts and chains are often sold as part of a kit with the water pump, tensioner, and idler pulleys so that these parts can be replaced to prevent timing belt or chain failure due to failure of these parts.

This has pushed market sentiment, as measured by Citi's Levkovich Index, increasingly higher. The Levkovich Index, which takes into account investors' short positions and leverage, among other factors, to determine market sentiment, currently sits at a reading of 0.62, above the euphoria line of 0.38, where the likelihood of positive forward returns is typically lower as the market appears stretched.

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In many older overhead valve engines, the camshaft is located in the block near the crankshaft, therefore a simple gear system is often used to drive the camshaft. Overhead camshaft engines mostly use timing belts or timing chains, since these are better suited to transferring drive over larger distances. Timing belts were common on mass-production cars until the 1970s and 1980s,[citation needed] however since the 1990s timing chains have become more common due to the replacement intervals required when using timing belts.

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Hovering right above 4.6%, the 10-year is at its highest level in about seven months and in the territory where equity strategists believe higher rates could begin to weigh on stock performance.

Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, week ending Dec. 20 & week ending Dec. 27, Initial jobless claims, week ending Dec. 28 (219,000 expected); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, December final (48.3 expected, 48.3 prior); Construction spending month-over-month, November (+0.3% expected, +0.4% prior)

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Timing belts are typically located in front of the engine and are often behind a cover for protection against dust and debris. However a few engines since 2008 have used "wet timing belts", whereby the belt is lubricated by engine oil to reduce friction losses by 30% and thus reduce fuel consumption by 1%.[7] In some engine designs the timing belt may also be used to drive other components, such as the water pump and oil pump.

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While history may be flashing a warning sign, it's notable that last year the Santa Claus rally didn't materialize. January started poorly too. Still, the S&P 500 is still set to end the year up more than 20%.

"Overall, this setup, plus the lack of real correction in some time, does leave the market more susceptible to increasing bouts of volatility," Chronert wrote. "If the fundamental story holds, we would be buyers of first half pullbacks in the S&P 500."

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But strategists argue that stretched sentiment and valuations do put the market rally on thinner ice should a catalyst that challenges the bull thesis for 2025 emerge.

In economic data, updates on housing prices and sales, as well as a a look at activity in the manufacturing sector, are expected to highlight a subdued week of releases.

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Metal timing chains have become more widespread in car engines produced since the 1990s, due to the lack of the regular maintenance task of replacing a rubber timing belt. While the chains themselves are subject to minimal wear, lubrication of the chain or failure of the tensioner and chain guides can cause maintenance issues. By contrast to rubber-based timing belts which give no indication of snapping while one is driving, early symptoms of a timing chain system becoming worn exist, and these include a rattling noise from the front of the engine.[24]

Fiber or nylon covered gears, with more resilience, are often used instead of steel gears where direct drive is used. However, commercial engines and aircraft engines use steel gears only, as the other materials can fail suddenly and without warning.[25]

The phrase "timing belt" usually refers to a rubber toothed belt. The advantages of timing belts are typically a lower cost, reduced friction losses,[citation needed] less noise and that belts traditionally do not require lubrication.[4] The main disadvantage is that belts wear over time, therefore belt replacement is recommended at specific intervals.[5][6] Replacement of the engine's water pump at the same time is often recommended, since the water pump is also subject to wear and easily accessed during the replacement of the timing belt.

Older belts have trapezoid shaped teeth leading to high rates of tooth wear.[citation needed] Newer manufacturing techniques allow for curved teeth that are quieter and last longer.

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2021428 — The water pump is located externally and driven from its own belt on the rear of the engine. It doesn't run on the timing chain. Unlike other cars they're ...

The 1962 Glas 1004 was the first mass-produced vehicle to use a timing belt. The 1966 Pontiac OHC Six engine was the first US mass-produced vehicle to use a timing belt,[21][22] while the 1966 Fiat Twin Cam engine was the first mass-produced engine to use a timing belt with twin camshafts. Carmakers began to adopt timing belts in the 1970s and compared to timing chains are less expensive, smaller, lighter, quieter, isolate harmonics of the crankshaft from the valve train, require less power than chains and can potentially function without lubrication. Timing belts are usually made of Neoprene or HNBR.[23][7]

In a piston engine, either a timing belt (also called a cambelt) or timing chain or set of timing gears is a perishable component used to synchronize the rotation of the crankshaft and the camshaft. This synchronisation ensures that the engine's valves open and close at the correct times in relation to the position of the pistons.

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Markets are three days into the highly anticipated "Santa Claus" rally, which is statistically one of the most consistent seven-day positive stretches of the year for the S&P 500.

Most pushrod engines, where the crankshaft and camshaft are very close together, use a short chain drive rather than a direct gear drive. This is because gear drives suffer from frequent torque reversal as the cam profiles "kick back" against the drive from the crank, leading to excessive noise and wear.[citation needed]

When the S&P 500 is negative during that time frame, January usually doesn't end in the green, and the return for the upcoming full year averages just 5%, per Turnquist. Three days into this year's Santa Claus period, which will close on Friday, Jan. 3, the S&P 500 is down less than 0.1%

Economic data: S&P CoreLogic 20-City year-over-year, October (+4.11% expected, +4.57% prior); Dallas Fed Services Activity, December (9.8 prior)

In most piston engines, the camshaft(s) are mechanically connected to the crankshaft. The crankshaft drives the camshaft (via a timing belt, timing chain or gears), which in turn actuates the intake and exhaust valves.[1] These valves allow the engine to inhale air (or an air/fuel mixture) and exhale the exhaust gasses.[2]

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Economic data: MNI Chicago PMI, December (42.8 expected, 40.2 prior); Pending home sales month-over-month, November (0.9% expected, 2% prior); Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, December (-1.5 prior, -2.7 prior)

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A holiday-shortened trading week with limited news on the docket is expected to greet investors in the final trading week of the year. Markets will be closed for New Year's Day on Wednesday, and no major companies are slated to report quarterly results.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 1.3% during the seven trading days beginning Dec. 24, well above the typical seven-day average of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist. History has shown that if Santa does come and the S&P 500 posts a positive return during the time period, then January is typically a positive month for the benchmark index and the rest of the year averages a 10.4% return.

The usual failure modes of timing belts are either stripped teeth (which leaves a smooth section of belt where the drive cog will slip) or delamination and unraveling of the fiber cores. Breakage of the belt, because of the nature of the high tensile fibers, is uncommon.[15] Often overlooked, debris and dirt that mix with oil and grease can slowly wear at the belt and materials advancing the wear process, causing premature belt failure.[16]

"In the last couple of years, really markets have only gone down because of rising interest rate or inflation fears," Kantrowitz said on Dec. 18. "And I think that's the new normal that going forward. Market corrections are going to come from higher rates, not slower growth or higher unemployment."